Univision Poll: Kamala Harris recovers Hispanic voters that Joe Biden lost

With the Democratic National Convention in Chicago approaching, a new Univision Noticias poll presents a complex picture for Vice President Kamala Harris among Hispanic voters for the November presidential election.

The poll highlights how Harris has managed to regain some of the Hispanic vote that President Joe Biden had lost, although she still faces significant challenges to reach the level of support that the president enjoyed in 2020.

The results of the Univision poll, carried out in collaboration with YouGov, show that Harris has 55% favorability among Hispanic voter, while 53% of those surveyed would vote for her if the elections were held today.

It's a notable improvement compared to recent polls that showed Biden and former President Donald Trump were nearly tied among Hispanic voters before the president resigned from the candidacy.

However, according to AP VoteCast, Harris's performance is below Biden's in 2020, when he won 63% of the Hispanic vote.

The Univision survey interviewed 1,100 registered Hispanic voters nationwide between August 10 and 15, a larger sample than previous work done in the community.

The gender factor

The survey also highlights the diversity within the Hispanic community and reveals gender disparities in candidate support.

The race is much closer among Hispanic men: Harris leads Trump by a narrow margin of 50% to 44%. In contrast, Harris enjoys a commanding lead among Hispanic women, with 59% supporting her compared to 32% for Trump.

These numbers illustrate both challenges and opportunities for both campaigns as they seek to connect with Hispanic voters on issues that resonate with their diverse experiences and priorities.

The strategy of name-calling

One of the new aspects of voter surveys this cycle is the inclusion of questions about voters' reactions to campaign tactics, particularly name-calling and personal attacks.

The survey indicates that two-thirds of Hispanic respondents consider these tactics to be unproductive and detrimental to the integrity of the political system. Additionally, 41% of respondents considered former President Trump's comments questioning Harris' racial identity, made during an interview with the National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ), to be harmful and racist. In comparison, 20% believed that comments were justified.

In terms of political issues, the poll finds that Hispanic voters share many of the concerns of the general electorate, with inflation, immigration, gun violence, abortion, student debt, and climate change at the top of their list of priorities.

However, health care stands out as a particularly pressing issue for Latino voters: 30% identify it as a top concern. This contrasts with a recent YouGov poll showing that only 10% of the general electorate rank healthcare as a priority issue.

Abortion will also be crucial in this election, as 33% of Hispanic respondents believe it should be legal in all cases, and 25% believe it should be legal in most cases.

This perspective on abortion further emphasizes the complex landscape that Harris and her campaign must navigate to secure Latino support.

The survey also delved into perceptions about the two major political parties' commitment to the Latino community. When asked if they think the Democratic or Republican parties care a lot about Latinos, don't care too much about Latinos, or are even hostile toward the Latino community, The responses highlighted a deep sense of disenchantment.

Forty-five percent of respondents believed the Democratic Party cares about Latinos, while 10% believed the party is hostile. On the other hand, 35% said the Republican Party doesn't care, and 34% believe the Republican Party is hostile toward Latinos.

These results suggest that most Hispanic respondents feel neither party truly prioritizes their community, a sentiment that has been increasing since this question was first asked in 2020.

The survey sheds light on the factors that influence Hispanic voting decisions and underscores the critical role this community will play in the upcoming elections.